The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has filed a preliminary Long-Term Load Forecast for 2026–2032.
Customers with the largest energy usage were currently data centers, cryptocurrency mining, industrial, and oil and gas processes, according to ERCOT.
The forecast projects approximately 367,790 MW of demand by 2032. The current all-time peak demand was recorded in August 2023 at 85,508 MW.
ERCOT filed the preliminary forecast for years 2026 through 2032, with the vast majority of the load forecast for 2029 and 2032 being attributable to large loads that were identified in Transmission and/or Distribution Service Provider (TDSP) load submissions based on criteria established in the 2026 Regional Transmission Plan (R-TP) Compliance Plan required.
In its Final Recommendation of Modeling Assumptions, ERCOT recommended the load forecast be in accordance with the 2026 RTP Compliance Plan as a modeling input. This recommendation was intended to ensure that the assessment of how well the ERCOT System is meeting the Public Utility Commission of Texas' (Commission) reliability standard in 16 TAC § 25.508 would rely on the same load forecast used for other transmission planning studies and resource adequacy assessments for the ERCOT Region.
However, ERCOT has concerns with using the preliminary load forecast values for the Reliability Assessment and any other transmission and resource adequacy analysis. ERCOT would prefer to consult with commission staff to evaluate whether it is appropriate to seek adjustment of the forecast. Adjusting the load forecast is permissible under newly enacted 16 TAC § 25.370(e)(2)(B). That provision authorizes the commission to approve an ERCOT-requested adjustment 'if the adjustment is supported by actual historical realization rates or other objective, credible, independent information.'
Among other information that may warrant consideration, ERCOT currently projects that summer 2026 peak load will fall within a range of approximately 90,500 MW to 98,000 MW, compared with the preliminary LTLF's forecasted peak demand of approximately 112,000 MW for summer 2026.
ERCOT was set to discuss the forecast during the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) open meeting.