With just 70 days out from the March 3 primaries in Texas, the latest polls show single- digit gaps between candidates in both parties.
The Texas Congressional Senate race is heating up for a battle. Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn’s race against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is proving to be a three-way race, with U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt gaining traction in recent polls. A Dec. 4 poll by J.L. Partners shows Paxton leading with 29%, just a few points ahead of Cornyn and Hunt at 24%. Still, 23% of likely Republican primary voters surveyed were undecided.
The Democratic field, made up of U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and Texas State Rep. James Talarico, is proving to be a close race. Some polls show that Crockett would defeat alarico, altThough oth-ers predict her losing to the three major Republican candidates. Crocket noted in October she would need to have chance at winning before entering the race, but felt no Democrat could defeat Cornyn. Some other races are an uphill battle for lesserknown democrats. The latest polling from the Barbara Jordan Center focused in on the Democratic races for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.
The polling shows Texas State Rep. Gina Hinojosa is leading the Democratic field for the gubernatorial race with 41%, with 42% unsure of those polled, with the blame place on lack of name recognition.
At least 10 Texas incumbents will not be returning to Congress next term, a highwater mark for turnover in the delegatNine members of Congress from Texas — six Republicans, three Democrats — have announced they will depart at the end of this term. In addition, four incumbents are facing serious primary challengers.
The rush for the exits in 2026 will at least tie the delegation’s high-water mark for departures in the past 50 years — 10 members retired or lost reelection in 2018 — if notTexas campaign polls show close races surpass it. And the turnover will issue a blow to Texas’ sway in the lower chamber,which in many ways has yet to recover from the exodus of high-profile Republicans during Trump’s first term.But their power has waned in recent years, as long-tenured members in both parties have left, and the Republican center of gravity has shifted from the Lone Star State to Florida, President Donald Trump’s adopted home.
At the start of Trump’s first term, seven Texans chaired House committees, giving the state influence over tax policy, the military, border security and banks. It was a familiar position for the state, which has long sent towering figures to Congress who have shaped national policymaking, from former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay to former House Speaker Sam Rayburn and Rayburn’s mentee, Lyndon Johnson.
Now, though, Texas is down to control of just three House committee gavels: Williams, who chairs the Small Business Committee; Woodville Rep. Brian Babin, who leads the Science, Space and Technology Committee; and Lubbock Rep. Jodey Arrington, who holds the powerful Budget gavel. Arrington is retiring at the end of the term as well, further dwindling Texas’ leadership prospects.