Top oil and gas companies are generating over $30 million hourly in unearned profits following the Trump blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which has driven oil prices above $100 a barrel. Major entities like Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil, and Shell are reaping significant windfalls, with estimated excess profits potentially reaching $234 billion by year-end.
The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has created severe supply constraints, pushing crude prices over $100 a barrel, according to OilPrice.com. ExxonMobil is projected to gain $11 billion in 'unearned war profits' in 2026 if high prices persist, while Shell is expected to see a $9 billion boost. Saudi Aramco is projected to gain $25.5 billion.
Despite sanctions, Russian oil giants like Gazprom and Rosneft are set to gain $23.9 billion in extra profits by year-end, with exports reaching a nine- month high.
More than six weeks after the war began, one key part of the global energy supply remains locked in the strait - liquefied natural gas, or LNG. LNG is mainly used for electricity and heating, and about a fifth of the global LNG supply is produced by state-owned QatarEnergy. Even if the strait opens, it's unclear when Qatar's LNG could reach buyers in Asia and Europe. Early in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, attacks hit QatarEnergy's LNG facilities and a full return to production capacity could take years.
With Qatar largely out of the picture, there's a global shortage of natural gas. That leaves an opening for the world's largest LNG exporter, the U.S. The U.S. set a record for LNG exports in March, but the U.S. only has so much capacity for production and exports. Making LNG requires cooling natural gas to negative 260 degrees Fahrenheit so it becomes liquid and then transporting it on huge ships. There currently aren't enough gas pipelines or LNG terminals in the U.S., so ramping up LNG exports will take time.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate Committee on the Budget reported that oil and gas executives have donated over $75 million to Donald Trump's 2024 campaign and affiliated PACs, suggesting a potential $1 billion fundraising goal in exchange for reversing environmental regulations, speeding up permits, and maintaining tax benefits.
Even after Trump’s victory in 2024, oil and gas interests have continued to pour money into his political operation. They gave $11.8 million to his inauguration fund, and even though Trump cannot run for a third term, his main super PAC has raked in millions more from the industry since he took office — including $25 million from oil producer Energy Transfer Partners and its CEO, Kelcy Warren.
Trump has consistently been rewarding the industry by adopting its policy agenda as his own. His signature legislative package — which one executive deemed “positive for us across all of our top priorities” — gives oil and gas firms $18 billion in tax incentives while rolling back incentives for clean energy alternatives. He’s placed fossil fuel allies in charge of the agencies that oversee the industry and fast-tracked drilling projects on public lands.
In just his first 100 days back in office, Trump took at least 145 actions to undo environmental rules — more than he reversed during his entire first term as president. Before Trump even reentered the White House, the industry was reportedly pre-drafting executive orders for him to issue.
And now the Trump blockade is again enriching oil companies.