The statistical service of the United States Department of Agriculture is projecting this year's Upland cotton crop to be roughly 1.5 million bales lower than initially expected.
USDA’s nationwide forecast of 14.55 million bales in the report is about half-a-million bales fewer than its planted acreage estimates released in June.
Producers across the state are estimated to have planted 5,831,897 acres of Upland cotton crops, according to the USDA Farm Service Agency's August certified acreage report.
Forecasters predicted at the onset of the summer grow months that drought conditions would develop and persistence throughout the region, the Herald previously reported.
Meanwhile, regional industry groups like the nonprofit Plains Cotton Growers, or PCG, remain optimistic that Congress will adopt a new farm bill package in spite of little action on the issue ahead of its looming expiration on Sept. 30.
Though the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, or NASS, forecasts all cotton production to be up 25% nationwide from last year, expected yield is predicted to decrease by 59 pounds per harvested acre within the same timespan.
Shawn Wade, PCG's director of policy analysis and research, told the Herald that the federal agency's projections become more definitive as crops develop over the grow season.
'The further along that NASS goes with their surveys, the more accurate they become because they're early in the season,' Wade said. 'We're surveying fields, counting green bolls, bolls that aren't necessarily open in most of the fields, bolls in fields that are still maybe blooming and setting bolls. So this early number is really just that — an early number. The September number will be based on more of a crop that's kind of established, and we kind of have a better idea of how much that each one's going to make.'
Hale County's drought conditions have worsened since initial estimates were made. Wade said surveys made in June after May's rainfall had made a positive impact on fields were all but sure to vanish once the weather dried and triple digit days began piling up.
Another key insight from the USDA's estimations indicated that producers around the Texas High Plains are responsible for a disproportionate amount of newly planted cotton acres statewide. Although cotton acres planted in the West Texas and Panhandle region rose by around 400,000 acres from last year's figure, USDA data indicates that producers across the entire state planted about 450,000 fewer acres than initially expected. In his newsletter for PCG, Wade wrote that '(f)ailed acres will play a huge role in the ultimate size of the crop at the national, state and regional levels.'
'In June, the survey said 6.44 million acres, but the certified acres show only 5.83,' Wade said. 'So basically, all that says is that everywhere else in the U.S., people planted pretty much what they said they were going to plant, but in Texas, producers obviously made some different choices.'
Wade said a multitude of factors could have led growers to abandon cotton field acres. Last minute switches to a crop expected to be more valuable, unfavorable weather conditions, and the overall price of commodities were some of the potential explanations Wade gave for cotton abandonment this season.
Regardless, enough progress appears to have been made in the early part of the grow season to at least out-pace the dire grow seasons of the past two years. Wade said growers are past their last effective bloom day for the season and the added stress on the plants could cause some fruit to shed sooner.
'Prospects don't look nearly as good as they did maybe earlier in the season, but we're still on pace to produce a pretty good crop,' Wade told the Herald. 'It looks like around here there will certainly be more cotton than we produced last year and the year before last. But you know, it won't be a record crop of any sort. So, maybe average-to-slightly-belowaverage, or literally below average.'
Late-season abandonment is still a considerable risk for the area's dryland acres if drought conditions continue. Still, even isolated rainfall can sometimes give stands the much-needed boost to sustain itself: 'Cotton's a pretty tough plant,' Wade explained.
In spite of the harsh weather conditions, producers in Hale County have actually faired better than most. Wade said cottongrowing counties south of Lubbock have dealt with abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions for even longer, leading to higher rates of abandonment.
'Of course, most of the county's irrigated, obviously, but out of about 273,000 acres planted in Hale County, around 254,000odd acres were still standing right now,' Wade said. 'So only 18,000 acres have been lost or officially failed in Hale County at this point. That's a really low number, so definitely the crop looks pretty good in Hale County at this point.'