A recent Agrilife Today article shows that Texas A&M agricultural economists predict stable meat prices into October. Simon Somogyi, lead author of a recent report, Dr. Kerry Litzenberg Sales and Economics Endowed Chair and head of the Department of Agricultural Economics also discussed how the New World screwworm (NWS) and oil prices could impact prices.
“The signal is more cautious than bearish,” Somogyi said. “We think things are going to be reasonably stable in terms of price, but we keep seeing layer upon layer of worldwide events that impact price.”
Average ground beef prices are expected to go down from about $6.71 per pound in May to $6.62 by October. Ribeye is also projected to go from about $18.81 per pound to $18.33. Chuck roast and sirloin steak will stay somewhat the same, but brisket may increase slightly.
Livestock trade with Mexico is closed due to NWS. According to the article, “the pest poses no major threat to the U.S. beef supply, management practices could translate into higher input costs that eventually trickle down to consumers.” However, Somogyi did say that Canada’s halt on Texas beef imports could help because more beef will sell locally.
Somogyi also said oil prices are a big factor in meat prices as petroleum contributes to fertilizer, animal feed and transportation costs. With the U.S.-Iran conflict, there is some uncertainty as to how they will change, but changes in prices will not immediately effect grocery prices.
“Big fluctuations can ripple into multiple layers of the logistical chain from farm to grocery store,” he said. “That potentially broad impact makes it tricky for us to predict what’s going to happen. We’re cautiously optimistic that we’ve probably seen the height of oil price increases,” Cheaper meat options include pork and chicken. Pork is expected to go from $3.54 per pound in May to $3.84 by October. Chicken should remain stable, only rising six cents per pound.
“The biological cycle is a lot shorter for those,” Somogyi said. “That means the market can respond quicker and move product through to the grocery store more rapidly than the cattle cycle, which takes years.”
Ultimately, Somogyi said beef demands, which were still strong in 2025, may start changing as consumers choose more budget-friendly options. We may get to a situation whereby people start really looking at the substitutes,” he said. “Ground beef is still relatively inexpensive, but those higher-cost cuts, the sirloin and rib-eye steaks, may become only for special occasions.”