A new ReconMR poll shows Democrat state Rep. James Talarico’s leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race by 6 percentage points, 49% to 43%, with early voting a month away.
ReconMR, a nonpartisan Texas pollster, found in its Texas Poll survey that Talarico leads Paxton 49% to 43% among 614 likely voters surveyed by phone and text Sept. 8-11. Talarico led 47% to 43% in July, after the candidates were tied at 46% in June.
According to Recon-MR, independent voters are fueling the movement, backing Talarico 64% to 24%.
Talarico also leads in five other recent polls, with margins ranging from Emerson College Polling’s near dead heat to ReconMR’s 6-percentage- point gap.
Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball noted that Hispanic voters who backed President Donald Trump in 2024 now “break for Talarico by 15 points, 54% to 39%.”
A survey sponsored by Spanish-language network Telemundo and conducted by Mason- Dixon Polling & Strategy found Talarico leading 46% to 43% among 625 registered voters surveyed Sept. 8-10, Newsweek reported.
SoCal Strategies, a political research firm using an opt-in online panel, found Talarico leading 50% to 45% among 649 likely voters surveyed Sept. 1213.
AARP, the seniors’ advocacy group, released a poll conducted by the bipartisan polling teams Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research among 895 likely voters Aug. 30-Sept. 1. The poll showed Talarico ahead 48% to 44%, though voters 50 and older favored Paxton, 53% to 40%.
A survey for Spanish- language outlet N+ Univision, conducted online by You-Gov among 1,000 registered voters Aug. 27-Sept. 4, put Talarico ahead 48% to 43%, with 7% undecided. Hispanic voters favored him 56% to 37%. No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994, according to Fox 4 Dallas-Fort Worth.
Early voting for the Nov. 3 general election begins Oct. 19.