Populations of larger cities across the United States are progressing at historic slow rates, while midsize cities are outpacing them, possibly due to declining immigration and birth rates.
According to new statistics released by the Census Bureau, as the national population grew at one of the slowest rates in history, midsize city populations have held steady over the past year. Midsize cities are defined by the Bureau as “municipalities with populations ranging from about 25,000 to 70,000.”
These new statistics capture changes in the population from July 1, 2024, to July of the following year, a period of immigration decline under tighter border policies toward the end of the Biden administration and throughout the beginning of the Trump administration.
U.S. populations increased by only 1.8 million over the past year, which represents roughly a 0.5% growth rate, the lowest since 2021.
Larger cities throughout the U.S. are experiencing the bulk of these population drop-offs, where average growth rates have fallen to about half compared to the year before.
Demographer William Frey of the Brookings Institution says that “growth slowdown in bigger cities has a lot to do with the recent downturn in immigration, as immigrants tend to land in these cities.” New immigration added only 1.3 million people to the U.S. population over the period measured, having added 2.7 million the prior year.
Declining birth rates are also considered a factor in the overall population decline, with the fertility rate reaching a record low in 2024. Concerns over the economy, job and housing insecurity, and the cost of child care are leading people to feel uncertain about their ability to support a child.
However, Linnea Zinnerman, an associate professor in Population, Family, and Reproductive Health, points out that these statistics might actually be a marker of social progress. The largest decline in births for 2024 was for teenage mothers, with the fertility rate among girls ages 15-19 dropping 79%, representing the positive effects of initiatives to teach comprehensive sex education and contraceptive use.
Those alarmed over declining fertility rates should also be reminded that U.S. birth rates still outpace deaths, therefore the population is not shrinking. Women in the U.S., on average, give birth to around two children. According to Zimmerman, to achieve population stability, fertility rates must be at 2.1 children for every woman, “basically what a population needs to replace itself; a woman is having a child for herself and her partner.”
Despite these overall population declines, mediumsized cities throughout the nation are growing steadily.
For cities with 20,000 residents or more, some of the fastest-growing were in Texas. Many of those were cities surrounding the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and the Houston area. One such city, Celina, which is about an hour north of downtown Dallas, was the fastestgrowing city in the country last year.
The growth of midsize cities has been attributed to the presence of more affordable housing, newer schools, parks and trails, and modern commercial areas, according to Cullum Clark, director of the George W. Bush Institute’s Economic Growth Initiative at Southern Methodist University. He states that “a perception of better public safety in the suburbs also makes them attractive.”
Young couples looking for a better place to raise children, as well as people looking to get away from central urban areas, are drawn to these mid-size communities for their affordable and safe housing areas and convenient locations near commercial centers and city culture.
Larger cities in Texas are also faring quite well in comparison with broader national trends. Fort Worth became the nation's 10thlargest city in 2025 when it surpassed Jacksonville, Florida. San Antonio added the third-highest numerical growth in the U.S. with 14,359 new residents. Meanwhile, Houston added around 11,000 residents, and Austin passed 1 million residents.
Ultimately, Texas added more residents to its population than any other state, according to the recent census figures. Texas state demographer, Lloyd Potter, states that he doesn’t “think that we’re going to all of a sudden make a turnaround and Texas is going to start losing population or that growth is going to slow really dramatically.” “Texas is still growing more than other states.”