The nation’s fertility rate has dropped nearly every year since 2007, but this national decline masks substantial geographic variation according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
According to a recent analysis, fertility rates differ widely across U.S. counties, and even within individual states there are often both high and low fertility counties.
By combining current population estimates data on the age characteristics of U.S. counties with birth data the general fertility rate (GFR) was calculated for every county in the nation.
The GFR is the number of births per 1,000 females ages 15 to 44 and the study focused on U.S. counties in 2025 (2,703 of the 3,144 counties).
Nationally, the GFR has dropped from 69.5 in 2007 to 53.1 in 2025 — the lowest level reported in the national data series, which is available back to 1909.
In 2007, the national GFR was just below 70 (69.5) when total fertility rates (TFR) were about 2.1 births per woman, which is generally considered “replacement level.” In 2024, the GFR was 53.8 and the TFR was 1.6. All regions were well below the 70 GFR threshold in 2025.
The South had the highest GFR at 55.8, followed closely by the Midwest at 54.7. The West had a GFR of 51.0, and the Northeast came in lowest, at 49.9.
Even with low GFRs, all regions experienced more births than deaths between 2024 and 2025.
There are only a few states that do not have any counties with a GFR above 60, including the entirety of New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont.
The study also examined fertility rates and births by county type including metro, micro and counties outside metro and micro areas.
Counties with the most births are often not the ones with the highest fertility rates, instead the data suggests counties with the highest numbers of births frequently have fertility rates below the median of all counties.
More populated counties tend to have more births because of their sheer size, but fertility rates can be impacted by a variety of factors: from the age structure of the population to other social or economic conditions.
Counties with both higher births and higher fertility rates were uncommon among large U.S. counties, with a few standouts in Texas.
Among all counties with at least 20,000 births in 2025, the highest three general fertility rates were all in Texas including Dallas County with 37,108 births, GFR of 62.6; Harris County with 65,753 births, GFR of 59.2, and Tarrant County with 27,795 births, GFR of 57.0.
Micro counties tended to have fewer total births, but also higher fertility rates than metro counties.
Counties outside of metro/micro areas tended to have the fewest births but also the highest fertility rates among the county types.
Fertility is one important piece of population change but can also change due to other factors including deaths, domestic migration and international migration, and other components that have varying impacts across the United States.