Season-to-season factors continue to keep Texas pecan production from reaching previous yield benchmarks, said a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expert.
Monte Nesbitt, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension horticulture specialist and assistant professor in the Texas A&M Department of Horticultural Sciences, said pecan trees typically produce good to heavy crops followed by a light to very light crop the following year.
But that typical on-and-off cycle pecan growers and homeowners have come to expect from their trees has gotten off track due to a range of factors, Nesbitt said.
“Things are just out of sync, and we’re not seeing the production our 80,000-plus acres of pecans are capable of,” he said. “We should be a 50-million-pound producer in a good year, but we’re estimating another year around 28 to 32 million pounds.”
The two previous seasons were easier to explain because of drought, Nesbitt said, especially with the extreme heat and lack of rain in 2023. However, this season has presented a mixed bag of conditions – too much moisture for some Texas orchards and not enough for others – that will lead to another subpar statewide yield.
“There are locations that look good, where the nut crops look moderate to moderately heavy, but they’re dispersed around the state,” he said.
In the eastern half of the state to south Central Texas and down to the Gulf Coast, early spring moisture hurt as much as it helped by setting the stage for disease, Nesbitt said.
Scab, a fungal pathogen and the most economically damaging disease pest in pecans, is front and center among a range of diseases that could impact yields and quality for many orchards.
Nesbitt called 2024 the worst manifestation of scab he’s seen in years. The disease’s presence will impact at-home producers as well as commercially managed orchards, where disease control practices were hampered by the weather.
On the other end of the moisture spectrum, pecan orchards in the Panhandle and High Plains down to El Paso continue to deal with drought and/or water restrictions, Nesbitt said. In those regions, the on-andoff cycle for trees has not aligned with growing conditions and water availability.
For instance, growers around El Paso received a water allotment increase this season compared to last but are not expected to have a bumper crop because it is an “off” year for most trees, he said. The previous season was vice versa.
“Last year, those orchards had good production from the trees, but the water situation was not good,” he said. “This year, they have the water, but it’s not a big cropping year. They need water consistency to reach each season’s potential.”
Potential for pecan demand Poor wholesale pecan prices have exacerbated economic challenges for growers, Nesbitt said. Low prices have plagued the U.S. pecan industry since the pandemic after a good run of years with high prices prior to that global event. Poor prices, so-so yields and cost increases on inputs like fertilizer, fuel and labor have been difficult for many growers.
Blair Krebs, executive director of the Texas Pecan Growers Association, said wholesale prices improved some – about 20-30 cents per pound – last year, but that it is too early to guess how they will respond to supply and demand factors when harvest is complete.
A few demand-side factors may improve the market for growers in the future, she said. Mars Inc. has announced it will make a highly successful test run of pecan Snickers — a permanent fixture in its candy lineup.
The pecan industry is also seeing positive movement on potential export demand. Industry representatives were working to reestablish better trade with China where high tariffs on pecans devastated years of export gains there. Popularity of the nut in Chinese markets had boosted domestic prices significantly before the trade rift.
India is also emerging as a potential growth market for pecans, she said. Industry representatives had been working to reduce high tariffs and were successful at negotiating a 70% reduction. Krebs said progress there will likely be slow, but that the large, young population presents a considerable opportunity for growers.
Meanwhile, Nesbitt said Texas pecan growers continue to realize strong prices for direct-toconsumer and direct-to-retail markets. “We have a growing number of producers in Texas who are seeing the opportunity with population growth to interface with customers and market their story as a local pecan farmer,” she said. “That’s good for consumers and farmers.”
The district experienced very scattered showers with continued hot temperatures. Wheat planting started, primarily under irrigation for fall pasture. Corn, cotton and grain sorghum were well on their way to maturity. Inputs ceased for all three crops except for harvest aid in cotton.
Haying of improved pastures and summer annuals continued. There was an increase in silage harvesting in early planted forage sorghum. The harvest of corn planted for silage purposes was expected to follow soon. Rangelands were drying down and going dormant. Overall soil moisture was very short to short. Pasture and range conditions were very poor to fair. Overall, crops were poor to good.
Temperature highs last week were in the low-80s with lows in the upper 50s. Rain totals reached 1-10 inches throughout the district. The rain dramatically improved soil moisture conditions and filled up stock ponds. Most of the showers were very slow and steady, allowing the rain to soak into the ground with little runoff, even on the steeper sloped fields. Pastures produced small amounts of grass that were expected to hold on for a little while. Winter wheat planting continued, and early planted fields began to emerge. Most cotton was too far along to benefit from the rain. Pecans were growing while watermelon and cantaloupe growth had slowed down. Livestock were in fair condition. Beef cattle producers in the area had begun their fall work, and recent rains were expected to affect the number that would be shipped or retained in the coming months.
The district experienced significant rainfall with totals ranging from 4-15 inches. The week-long rain delivered muchneeded moisture to the district. This rainfall and cooler temperatures allowed for adequate moisture absorption by the soil. The improved soil moisture was expected to benefit small grain producers who were preparing to plant wheat and other winter crops. The rain arrived too late to salvage the cotton crop, but greatly enhanced prospects for wheat and winter grazing. Pasture and range conditions showed marked improvement, and most stock tanks and lakes were refilling. The rainfall boosted forage growth, though it may also cause an increase in insect pest problems. Livestock conditions were steady with fall weaning of calves underway. Dove hunting season opened with favorable conditions. Despite a reduction in cattle sales due to the rain and the temporary closure of sale barns, prices for stocker cattle remained stable to slightly higher.
Widespread rains occurred across the district, bringing between 0.75-7 inches. Rains provided much-needed moisture for those planting oats and wheat, as well as for crops currently growing. They also reduced or eliminated the need for irrigation in some areas and provided some recharge to aquifers. Pasture conditions were expected to improve headed into the fall. A storm front also brought in cooler temperatures, dropping into the low 80s over the weekend, with the cooler weather providing relief for heat-stressed plants, livestock and wildlife. Farmers were cutting the last crop of hay and preparing land for small-grain planting. Corn and sorghum harvests were expected to wrap up by the following week. The cotton harvest was approaching rapidly, with many fields ready for harvest. Baling of the year’s second hay cutting was near completion. Planting and germination of coolseason grasses and forbs began. Some trees were starting to defoliate.
Livestock producers were preparing for the breeding season. Livestock remained in fair condition. Migratory birds were arriving, mostly doves, but some ducks were also spotted. Local dove hunters reported scattered birds due to the recent rains. Supplemental feeding of livestock slowed down. There were a few reports of desert termite damage in pastures.