This report presents USDA’s initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. prices for 2024/25.
Also presented are the first calendar-year 2025 projections of U.S. livestock, poultry, and dairy products. Due to spring planting still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative.
Forecasts for U.S. winter wheat area, yield, and production are from the May 10 Crop Production report. For other U.S. crops, the March 28 Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage. Methods used to project 2024/25 harvested acreage and yield are noted in each table.
COTTON: The U.S. cotton projections for 2024/25 include a larger crop as planted area is slightly higher and abandonment is projected at less than half the rate realized in 2023/24.
Production is forecast at 16.0 million bales, based on 10.67 million planted acres as indicated in the March Prospective Plantings report, with harvested area expected to rise 2.7 million acres year over year to 9.1 million. U.S. abandonment is projected below the 10-year average reflecting moisture conditions to date in the Southwest. Despite a lower national yield, production is forecast nearly 4 million bales larger. Although beginning stocks are lower, 2024/25 total supplies are projected 12 percent higher.
Exports are expected to rise 700,000 bales due to increased supplies and higher world trade, while U.S. mill use is expected to rise 100,000 bales. At 3.7 million bales, 2024/25 U.S. ending stocks are projected 1.3 million bales above the relatively low 2023/24 level. The marketing year average upland farm price is projected at 74 cents per pound, 2 cents below the previous year.
For 2023/24, final U.S. cotton production is estimated at 12.1 million bales. Exports are unchanged, with mill use increased slightly due to activity to date. Ending stocks are estimated lower at 2.4 million bales, while the projected seasonaverage price is unchanged.
Global supplies in 2024/25 are projected above a year earlier, as beginning stocks are unchanged and combine with a 5.4-millionbale increase in production. Consumption is projected up 3 percent year to year, and ending stocks are expected to rise as well. Production is expected to rise nearly 5 percent in 2024/25 as both global area and yield are expected to rise.
Larger crops in Brazil, the United States, and Turkey more than offset smaller crops in China and India. Greater global supplies are expected to increase use and world trade to a 4-year high. As production outpaces consumption growth, global ending stocks are projected up 2.5 million bales to 83.0 million.
The global 2023/24 estimates show higher production and consumption compared with the previous month. Australia’s crop is increased by 200,000 bales and India’s by 500,000. Increased use in China and India more than offsets lower use in Bangladesh, Brazil, Pakistan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.6 million bales to 80.5 million, mostly due to historical revisions to Brazil and India consumption
WHEAT: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, modestly higher domestic use, increased exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are projected up 6 percent from 2023/ 24 on larger carry-in stocks and production. All wheat production is projected at 1,858 million bushels, up 3 percent from last year on higher harvested acreage and yields. The all wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels.
The first 2024 NASS surveybased winter wheat production forecast of 1,278 million bushels is up two percent from 2023 on increased Hard Red Winter and White Winter production more than offsetting lower Soft Red Winter production.
Total 2024/25 domestic use is projected up 1 percent, primarily on higher feed and residual use. Exports are projected at 775 million bushels, up 55 million from the revised 2023/24 exports, which remain at a 52-year low.
Increased U.S. exportable supplies and more competitive prices are expected to result in higher exports. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are 11 percent above last year at 766 million bushels, the highest level in four years. The projected 2024/25 season-average farm price (SAFP) is $6.00 per bushel, down $1.10 from last year’s SAFP on higher stocks and lower projected U.S. corn prices.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for slightly lower supplies, increased consumption, modestly higher trade, and reduced stocks. Supplies are projected to decrease 2.2 million tons to 1,056.0 million with production projected at a record 798.2 million tons, but lower carryin stocks for several countries, most notably China and Russia, more than offset higher global production.
Increased output for India, China, Australia, Kazakhstan, Canada, and the United States is expected to more than offset reductions for Russia, the United Kingdom, the EU, and Ukraine. Projected 2024/25 world consumption is raised 2.0 million tons to a record 802.4 million as food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is expected to continue growing, while feed and residual use is projected lower as feed grains are anticipated to be more competitively priced than wheat. India is the largest FSI increase while China is the largest feed and residual reduction.
Projected 2024/25 global trade is 216.0 million tons, up 0.4 million from last year but below the 2022/ 23 record of 220.7 million. Russia is projected to remain the leading 2024/25 world wheat exporter at 52.0 million tons, though down from 2023/24. Exports are projected higher for Australia, Argentina, the United States, Kazakhstan, and Canada, but lower for Ukraine, the EU, and Turkey.
Projected 2024/25 world ending stocks are 4.2 million tons, down from last year at 253.6 million tons, the lowest since 2015/16. Russia and the EU account for the largest reductions, which are partially offset by increases for the United States and India.
COARSE GRAINS: The 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 14.9 billion bushels, down 3 percent from last year’s record as a decline in area is partially offset by an increase in yield. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2023 time period. With higher beginning stocks, total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18.
Total U.S. corn use for 2024/ 25 is forecast to rise just under 1 percent relative to a year ago on higher domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial use is forecast at 6.9 billion bushels. Corn used for ethanol is unchanged relative to a year ago, based on expectations of essentially flat motor gasoline consumption. Feed and residual use is projected higher on larger supplies and lower expected prices.
U.S. corn exports for 2024/25 are forecast to rise 50 million bushels to 2.2 billion, supported by a combined 5.4-million-ton reduction in exports for Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine. The United States is projected to be the world’s largest exporter for the second consecutive year, with an expected increase in global market share.
With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2024/25 ending stocks are up 80 million bushels from last year and, if realized, would be the highest in absolute terms since 2018/19. Stocks would represent 14.2 percent of use, up from 13.7 percent the prior year and the highest since 2019/20.
The season-average farm price is projected at $4.40 per bushel, down 25 cents from 2023/ 24. The 2024/25 global coarse grain outlook is for record production and use, and fractionally lower ending stocks. World corn production is forecast to decline from the prior year’s record to 1.220 billion metric tons, with the largest declines for the United States, Ukraine, Zambia, Argentina, Malawi, Mozambique, and Turkey. Partly offsetting are larger crops projected for Brazil, the EU, China, South Africa, and Mexico. Lower area expectations drive a decline in corn production for Argentina, in contrast to Brazil where production is forecast higher on expanded area. Ukraine corn production is expected to be down on reductions to both area and yield. Corn crop prospects for Russia are down as higher area is more than offset by a decline in yield. World barley, sorghum, oats, millet, mixed grain, and rye production are all forecast higher than a year ago.
World corn use is expected to rise less than 1 percent to a record 1.221 billion metric tons, with foreign consumption increasing modestly. World corn imports are forecast to fall just under 1 percent, driven by declines for several countries, including the EU, Canada, Iraq, and Venezuela. Partly offsetting are increases for Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Egypt, and Iran. Global corn ending stocks for 2024/25 are down 0.8 million tons to 312.3 million. Stocks in the major exporting countries of Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are projected down slightly, reflecting higher stocks in the United States mostly offset by declines for Brazil and Ukraine. For China, total coarse grain imports for 2024/25 are forecast at 41.5 million tons, up marginally from a year ago. Despite lower internal market prices for energy feedstuffs, expectations are for China’s prices to remain higher than the world market. Corn imports are projected unchanged at 23.0 million tons, barley imports
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, DAIRY: Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2025 is forecast to be lower than 2024. Beef production is forecast lower as tighter cattle supplies and increased heifer and cow retention are expected to result in lower slaughter of both fed and non-fed cattle. Pork production is forecast to increase as growth in pigs per litter will more than offset fewer expected farrowings.
Broiler production is expected to increase as lower feed costs and tighter red meat supplies support steady growth. Turkey production is forecast to increase, as it recovers from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culls. Egg production is forecast higher on flock rebuilding.
Total red meat and poultry production forecasts for 2024 are reduced from last month, with lower broiler, turkey, and pork forecasts offset slightly by higher beef production. Beef production is raised on higher cattle slaughter in the second half of the year and heavier dressed weights.
Pork production is lower as higher slaughter in the first half of the year is more than offset by lighter expected dressed weights for the duration of 2024. Broiler production is lower based on slaughter data through the first quarter, with the forecast for the remainder of the year unchanged.
Turkey production is lowered reflecting slaughter as well as hatchery data and expectations that weaker returns will put downward pressure on production for the second half of the year. Egg production is up slightly reflecting official data.
For 2025, beef exports are forecast lower than 2024 as tight domestic supplies limit competitiveness.
Beef imports are higher due to tight beef domestic supplies, particularly for processing-grade beef.
Pork exports are forecast higher on improved price competitiveness and increased demand in several key markets. Broiler exports are higher due to greater supplies, but growth is expected to be constrained by competition from other major exporters. Turkey exports are forecast to be slightly higher as supplies increase.
For 2024, the beef export forecast is raised from last month on data reported through the first quarter. Beef imports are lowered slightly on first-quarter data, but the forecasts for the remaining quarters are unchanged. Pork exports are lowered based on recent trade data and slower-thanexpected demand growth in several key markets. Broiler exports are lowered on recent data and increased price competition from major exporters.
For 2025, cattle prices are above 2024 on tighter cattle and beef supplies. Hog prices are lower than 2024 on increased expected hog supplies. Broiler prices are forecast slightly lower due to increased production. Turkey prices are higher. The egg price is below 2024 with larger expected supplies.
Cattle prices in 2024 are lowered on recent data and a more rapid pace of marketing in the second half of the year. Hog prices are lowered on weaker-thanexpected demand in the second half of the year. Broiler and turkey prices are lowered on recent data and softer expected demand. Egg prices are lowered on recent data and continued rebuilding of table egg inventories after outbreaks of HPAI in late-2023 and early-2024.
Milk production in 2025 is forecast to increase from 2024, driven by higher milk per cow and an expanding milk cow herd. With increases in a number of products, commercial exports are expected to grow on both a fat and skimsolids basis. Imports are forecast lower, both on a fat and skimsolids basis.
Domestic use is forecast to increase on a fat and skim-solids basis. Stocks are forecast lower on both a fat and skim-solids basis. The Class III and Class IV price forecasts are lower, as prices for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey are all expected to decline due to larger milk supplies. The all milk price is forecast at $20.90 per cwt.
The 2024 milk production forecast is raised based on an increase in dairy cows and more rapid growth in output per cow. On both a fat and skim-solids basis, imports are raised and exports are lowered. Domestic use is higher on both a fat and skimsolids basis, as well. The cheese price is raised, but the whey price is lowered. The butter price forecast is raised, while the NDM price is lowered. The Class III price forecast is raised, as higher cheese prices more than offset the lower whey. The Class IV price forecast is lower, as higher butter prices are more than offset by the lower NDM. The all milk price forecast for 2024 is raised to $21.20 per cwt.