WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price remains $9.00 per bushel.
The 2022/23 global outlook this month is for slightly smaller supplies, increased trade and consumption, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are lowered slightly as an increase in production nearly offsets a decrease in beginning stocks, which are lowered mostly on an increase for China 2020/21 feed and residual use. This reduction is based on an updated analysis of government old-crop wheat stocks auction data. Nearly offsetting this change, global production is raised 5.1 million tons to 788.9 million primarily on increases for Kazakhstan, Australia, and India. Production estimates for all three countries are raised on updated government data. Wheat production in Kazakhstan is now forecast at 16.4 million tons, 2.4 million higher than last month, and the largest harvest since 2011/12. World trade is raised 1.0 million tons to 213.9 million as increases for Kazakhstan, Australia, and Brazil more than offset decreases for Argentina and India. Global use is forecast 2.0 million tons higher to 793.2 million, largely on increases in India food, seed, and industrial use and Kazakhstan feed and residual use. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argentina, Kazakhstan, and Australia COTTON: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts are unchanged relative to last month. The projected marketing year average price received by producers is also unchanged at 83 cents per pound. The global 2022/23 cotton supply and demand forecasts this month include lower consumption and trade, and higher production and stocks. Beginning stocks are almost 900,000 bales higher as historical consumption estimates for China and Uzbekistan are updated to align with data from official and other sources. World cotton consumption in 2022/23 is 555,000 bales lower this month with reductions in Turkey, Pakistan, Indonesia, and Bangladesh. Projected imports are lower for each of these countries—and for China—while exports are lower for Brazil, India, and Argentina, with world trade totaling 785,000 bales lower. Production is more than 700,000 bales higher as larger expected crops in China, Australia, and Uzbekistan more than offset reduced prospects for India. At 91.1 million bales, 2022/ 23 world ending stocks are projected 2.1 million higher than a month earlier and 5.0 million higher than in 2021/22.