Southwest Power Pool or SPP, the grid operator responsible for coordinating electric reliability for a 15-state region in the central U.S. including West Texas and the Panhandle, expects to have enough generating capacity to meet the regional demand for electricity continuing into Fall 2023.
SPP conducts this assessment each year to identify and mitigate threats to reliability during the summer season lasting from June to September. The analysis considers factors such as historical and predicted future electricity use, weather forecasts, the variability of available wind energy, drought conditions and generation and transmission outages.
The 2023 Summer Seasonal Assessment anticipates normal conditions across the SPP region and shows a 99.5% probability SPP will have sufficient resources available to serve region-wide load during peak hours throughout the summer. Even if peak electricity use exceeds forecasts by as much as 5%, the study still found a 95% likelihood SPP will maintain resource sufficiency to serve all load.
If extreme weather, unexpected outages or other circumstances affect the region, SPP has systems, tools and procedures ready to mitigate risks and maintain electric reliability. Under different scenarios, the grid operator may call on generating units to commit to run earlier or more often than usual, delay planned outages, import energy from neighboring systems or tap into available reserves depending on the severity and duration of a reliability event.
“Ensuring there is enough capacity available to meet the needs of our customers is our most important role as a regional transmission organization, reliability coordinator and balancing authority for our region,” said Bruce Rew, Senior Vice President of Operations. “While our summer assessment didn’t raise any reliability concerns, we continue to plan for exceptional operational circumstances and work closely with our members to prepare for any possibility. We monitor the grid and make changes as necessary to responsibly and economically keep the lights on.”
If conditions threaten reliability, SPP will communicate with members, stakeholders and the public through the grid notice email distribution list and social media.
The Public Utility Commission of Texas is echoing the call from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas for Texans to conserve electricity use, if safe to do so. This appeal for conservation is in effect as low wind-power generation and high demand for electricity will result in anticipated low operating reserves for the Texas power grid this afternoon and into the evening.
ERCOT is not experiencing emergency conditions currently, but forecasts show a high potential to enter emergency operations this evening. Voluntary conservation by Texans will assist grid reliability.
ERCOT is requesting all government agencies including city and county offices to implement all programs to reduce energy use at their facilities.
ERCOT is using all available grid reliability measures, including reserve power, calling on large electric customers that have volunteered, to lower their energy use, and bringing more generation online sooner. ERCOT is also working with out-of-state Independent System Operators and Market Participants to secure additional power generation capacity.
Conservation is a widely used industry tool that can help lower demand for a specific period of peak demand time, which is typically late afternoon into the evening hours. ERCOT and the PUCT are asking Texans to take simple power conservation steps to reduce demand on the grid. The PUCT’s Power to Save website has tips for reducing electricity use in homes and businesses and other energy saving tips are available at TXANS (ercot.com).
PUCT explained that the request for reduced usage is because of the continued statewide extreme temperatures. Texas continues to experience near-record demand due to the heat. Wind generation is forecasted to be low during peak demand times and does not increase until very late.
Solar generation declines into the evening hours, before completely going offline at sunset. Independent System Operators (ISOs) in other states are going through similar extreme heat conditions and have asked for switchable generation resource capacity back to assist their regions. These switchable generation resources are within the primary control of other ISOs. ERCOT set a new, alltime, unofficial peak demand record of 85,435 MW on August 10, 2023. In 2022, the August peak demand was 78,465 MW. This summer, ERCOT has set 10 new all-time peak demand records. Last summer, ERCOT set 11 new peak demand records with a high of 80,148 MW on July 20.