The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released final county production estimates for Upland cotton on Friday, May 10 and the data shows Texas produced 2.7 million Upland cotton bales in 2023. Texas High Plains cotton production is an estimated 1,468,151 bales for the year.
Among High Plains counties that have official NASS data to review, only 5 counties produced more than 100,000 bales in 2023. Those counties were: Lubbock 177,500; Crosby – 134,500; Floyd – 134,000; Hockley – 130,000; and Hale – 119,000.
According to the January 2, 2024 USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) Certified Acreage report High Plains producers planted 3.442 million acres in 2023, while acres remaining for harvest totaled 1.341 million. Weather related losses led to 60% abandonment of planted acres in the region.
The USDA NASS data is a testament to the tough growing conditions that plagued the state in 2023. Unfortunately, the agency only published county-level data for 61 of the 162 counties that planted cotton in 2023, which equates to only 38% of raw data reported.
Only 22 counties in PCG’s 42county service area had official USDA NASS data released. Production from the remaining counties was estimated using a calculated USDA NASS district average yield from published county data and January certified acreage data.
The preceding paragraphs lead to a question of NASS relevancy. Is this USDA faction useful anymore? Given their recent discontinuation of the cotton objective yield survey and all county estimates for crops and livestock, which is data that industry has relied upon for years, it’s certainly something to think about. While we appreciate our colleagues at the state and regional offices who strive to do their job, the necessity of this entity, given the way they operate at the federal level, is definitely questionable. It appears most of the cotton producers across the High Plains who purchased coverage under the 2023 Stacked Income Protection Plan will receive indemnity payments under the policy.
This should certainly be the case for non-irrigated acres covered under a 2023 STAX policy, as almost every High Plains County is likely to see a maximum indemnity payment calculated. For irrigated cotton the STAX payment outlook is less clear, although most counties are expected to see some level of indemnity.
Using USDA data to get a sense for where final STAX yields might land it appears that irrigated cotton in most High Plains counties is likely to receive some level of payment under the 2023 STAX policy. A majority of irrigated STAX payments are likely to be less than the maximum possible under the policy.
Irrigated STAX policies in two counties, Hale and Crosby, appear to be “on the bubble” in terms of triggering a 2023 STAX payment. Whether or not these two counties trigger an irrigated STAX payment will depend on the final production numbers reported to USDA Risk Management Agency.
Final payment amounts will be determined by the USDA Risk Management Agency using 2023 production data reported by producers.