The Dallas Cowboys kick off their season against the reigning Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles in a little over two weeks.
With that being said, I started to think, what’s the ceiling and floor of this year’s team, and why? But before I answer that, I want to be completely honest.
I’ve been quite pessimistic about the Cowboys the past few years and for good reason. I’m convinced the Cowboys have never been in a worse state in regard to being a championship contending football team. And this isn’t a player problem, rather an organizational problem. The problem is that Jerry Jones cares more about views, clicks and making a profit, far more than winning. If the Cowboys are in the headlines Jerry is winning, regardless of if the team is winning. That isn’t changing this year, and it won’t change anytime soon under the ownership of the Jones’, just look at the ongoing Micah Parsons contract dispute as an example. No disrespect to any of the players, I simply just think they’re set up for failure in this organization.
Now, let’s get to the point, starting with their floor. The Cowboys floor is 6-11, which I know seems extremely low, but there’s several reasons why.
Under a first-time head coach in Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas has the fifth hardest strength of schedule in the NFL this season and they have a lot of question marks surrounding the team.
Micah Parsons isn’t currently practicing with the team due to contract disputes and recently requested a trade, which could really hurt the Cowboys to not have a top three defensive player in the league out on the field.
There are also several positions that raise concerns heading into the season, such as the left tackle position considering the recent injury to the starter Tyler Guyton.
Along with that, the second defensive tackle spot, the second corner back and the nickel back spots, running back, and the second and third linebacker spots are all questionable. Each position lacks players with proven capabilities, which is super concerning after the Cowboys were in the bottom third of the league statistically on both sides of the ball in 2024.
Star cornerback Trevon Diggs is expected to be back from injury in the first part of the season, while linebacker Demarvion Overshown should return in the back half of the year.
Guyton is a possibility for week one, but it’s more likely to be in the following weeks early on.
It’s going to be tough to overcome all these adverse factors, which is why the Cowboys have such a low floor, but there’s also potential for the latter to happen.
The Cowboys ceiling is 11-6 in 2025 and if they have even more, I’ll be glad, it’s just an extremely difficult schedule. The Cowboys added George Pickens at wide receiver, and he could really open up the field for Ceedee Lamb, Jake Ferguson and the third wide receiver. They also drafted offensive guard Tyler Booker in the first round to fill the hole left by Zack Martin’s retirement. Along with Booker, the Cowboys added three new running backs in Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders and Jaydon Blue.
If Dallas is to reach their ceiling, they’ll need real production from these three or even just one as a primary option.
Dak Prescott is back and healthy, and with some new additions the Cowboys could have a drastically better offense this season.
Defensively, they notably added a new coordinator in Matt Eberflus and linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr.
Last year the trenches were a big problem, and Dallas was a bottom five defense against the run. If they can fix that then they’ll already be a way better unit in 2025.
To achieve that they’ll need Micah back and for the question mark positions to step up, and if that happens Eberflus can make them a top 10 defense in the NFL. If this whole machine clicks, I think the Cowboys will make the playoffs as a Wild Card team, but I cannot foresee them going any further than the first round or maybe the second depending on the matchup.
Once again, it’s not the players, but the functionality of the organization and the culture that comes with that. History repeats itself and I’ve seen this song and dance way too often to be overzealous.
But come February, I hope I look like an absolute fool for doubting this team because it would be really nice to have the Cowboys prove me wrong and do something great in 2025.